The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government has suffered a significant defeat in the Terrebonne by-election, a vote triggered by the resignation of Pierre Fitzgibbon last September. The Parti Québécois (PQ) and its candidate Catherine Gentilcore secured a decisive victory, further solidifying its momentum against a declining CAQ.
This marks the second electoral setback for the CAQ in a by-election in less than two years, following the PQ’s victory in Jean-Talon in 2023. While that loss could have been seen as a warning sign, the Terrebonne result confirms a deeper trend: the CAQ no longer dominates Québec’s political landscape as it did during its electoral triumphs in 2018 and 2022.
A CAQ in freefall in the polls
Recent polls only add to the concerns for François Legault and his team. The latest survey places the PQ with a 12-point lead among francophone voters, a crucial demographic for any party aiming to form the government.
After six years in power, signs of wear are becoming evident. While the CAQ’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis had propelled it to record levels of popularity, the situation today is starkly different. The tariff war with the United States and Québec’s historic deficit are not playing in the government's favour, as it struggles to convince voters that it has the solutions to revive the economy and protect Québecers’ purchasing power.
A cabinet shuffle as a solution?
Faced with this loss of confidence, the Legault government will need to act quickly to course correct. One of the most frequently mentioned options is a major cabinet shuffle, which has been anticipated for months. Such a move could inject fresh energy into the government and signal to voters that the CAQ is capable of renewal.
François Legault faces a dual challenge: winning back Québecers by refocusing on their priorities and proving that he still has the leadership needed to guide his team into the next election.
The image used in this article was generated by artificial intelligence
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