The current North American economic context is marked by great uncertainty, driven in particular by fluctuations in actual or projected tariffs on Canadian exports. In this context, the government of Québec, under François Legault’s leadership, is navigating without a clear course. The challenges are numerous, especially as ministries have already been instructed to significantly reduce their spending, particularly in the health and social services sectors. This makes the 2025-2026 budget exercise even more challenging.
Quebeckers are among the most heavily taxed citizens in North America. This reality severely limits the government’s ability to increase the tax burden further. Additionally, Québec faces a significant challenge in terms of economic competitiveness, falling behind several of its main commercial competitors.
Over the past five years, the government’s instinct has often been to spend, to avoid making difficult political choices. This systematic recourse to public spending helped to bypass some complex strategic decisions, but now the time has come to pay the bill. The current limited budgetary flexibility is a direct consequence of this approach.
In this tense economic situation, the idea of offering aid and support programs to businesses and workers potentially affected by closures or job losses is commendable but risky. Québec’s financial capacity does not allow for multiple interventions without causing serious consequences.
On the revenue side, Quebeckers are now paying the price for certain decisions made over the past 15 years. By refusing to fully develop its natural resources, notably in the natural gas sector and through the construction of new hydroelectric dams, the province missed an important opportunity to strengthen its energy sector. The decision to continue importing large quantities of gas and oil has a real and direct impact on the province’s ability to weather the current economic shock.
When the Legault government first came to power, it was driven by the ambition to make Québec a prosperous province by leveraging its natural resources. This vision, which could have transformed Québec’s economy, was an excellent idea. Unfortunately, it was never fully implemented. Had it been, public finances would be in much better shape today, providing true flexibility to face more difficult times.
As the 2025-2026 budget is being developed, it is crucial for the government to carefully assess its priorities. In a context of limited resources, the decisions made will have profound repercussions on Québec’s economic future.
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